Deceptive mathematicsStep 2 of 10 · A go decision that succeeds 99 percent of the time, made 18 times, fails at least once one time in six. Factor I of Mike Meier's framework.
Murphy's CorollaryStep 3 of 10 · We don't believe Murphy's Law, yet we take a positive outcome as proof that it was inevitable. Factor II of Mike Meier's framework.
The pressure to goStep 4 of 10 · A go decision relieves the pressure; a no-go only increases it. Factor III of Mike Meier's framework, with the February 2015 certification launch.
Analyze your successesStep 5 of 10 · Set a quantitative safety metric and a target beforehand, then measure every success against it. The remedy in Mike Meier's framework.
Case studiesStep 6 of 10 · Six cases read against Mike Meier's three factors: two of his own hang gliding events, Apollo 1, Challenger, Columbia and the F-86 aileron bolt.
The 1995 top landingStep 6 of 10 · After some 1,500 successful top landings, a flawless approach ended in a crash. The case where Murphy's Corollary was first recognized.
The 2015 certification launchStep 6 of 10 · With a world championship weeks away and a glider to certify, Mike Meier launched in a wind that wasn't going to improve. A case study in the pressure to go.
Apollo 1Step 6 of 10 · NASA had a history of success with a pressurized pure-oxygen environment in manned capsules, until Apollo 1. A case study in Mike Meier's three factors.
ChallengerStep 6 of 10 · Shuttles flew on with O-ring erosion and blow-by in the booster joints, and each success widened what was accepted. A case study in Mike Meier's framework.
ColumbiaStep 6 of 10 · Shuttles re-entered and landed with heat-shield tiles damaged by foam shed from the external tank, until Columbia. A case study in Mike Meier's three factors.
The F-86 aileron boltStep 6 of 10 · F-86 crashes traced to an aileron bolt installed upside down. Murphy's Law at its root: if a part can be fitted wrong, design that possibility out.
Hard questionsStep 7 of 10 · Three questions the framework raises, in Mike Meier's words: aviation's capricious forgiveness, the limits of 'safe enough', and a crow.
Luck and uncertaintyStep 8 of 10 · Skill, judgment, unknowns and luck. Mike Meier's 2021 extension of the framework, after Art Tomassetti's chart in Flight Test Safety Fact.
Three Random Thoughts On SafetyStep 9 of 10 · Organizational safety culture, the 2D risk matrix and owning the risk. Mike Meier's 2025 brief to the SETP, SFTE and AIAA technical meeting.
Briefing KitFor safety officers and instructors: a briefing outline, Mike's talk and slides, printable pages, every discussion question in one place, and how to credit the material.
Briefing handoutA one-page briefing handout: Mike Meier's two premises, three factors and remedy, the odds of repeated go decisions, and five questions.
About Mike MeierMike Meier tested hang gliders for Wills Wing for 45 years. He joined the Society of Experimental Test Pilots in 1994 and was made a Fellow in 2026.
SpeakingFifteen presentations of Lessons Learned and Murphy's Corollary from 2015 to 2018, and the 2024 episode of On Condition, the Flight Test Safety Committee's podcast.